105 replies to this topic

[eddievxx]

How is the top 7/bottom 7 divide looking 5 rounds into the comp? Here are my bold and probably very wrong predictions...
You would have to say that Canterbury, Auckland, Wellington and Waikato all have enough depth and class to be confident of finishing at the top, but not neccesarily all semifinalists by any means.
That leaves 3 more teams battling it out for the other top 7 spots. Somewhere around the 32 or 33 point mark will probably be the cutoff.
The also rans this year will be Manawatu, Otago, North Harbour, and Tasman.
Northland could probably be in that list, but im picking 3 more wins from the Taniwha, for a 25 point haul.
While Taranaki is looking good right now, the coming weeks may see them drop a few games with Auckland, Canterbury, Wellington, interspersed with Bay of Plenty and Counties all games they aren’t sure to win. Im picking them to finish with 5 more wins, on about 39 points. Thats enough to see them in.
Bay of Plenty with just two wins are in a pretty good 8th spot, considering they have had a few tough games, and have yet to play the likes of Harbour, Manawatu, and Otago. You could almost say the Bay is similarly placed with the naki but with opposite draws. They’ll pick up 4 more wins, to finish on 29, probably just short.
Southland too have a number of difficult games coming up, but with the way they are going and the points they have already its basically impossible for them to miss out, barring a complete meltdown. They have 5 more wins left in the tank, with the shield heading back to Canterbury. 43 point finish will see them well in the semi hunt, if not home semi.
Hawkes Bay look to be struggling this time around, and although they started slowly last year and still were semifinalists, they certainly didnt start this slow. The only win against Manawatu could easily have gone the home teams way if they finished off just one of there promising moves. Im picking they will have only 2 more wins this season. 16 points will see them near last (but not last!).
Counties will continue on current form, winning 4 more games, struggling against dominating forward packs, and having too much firepower for those teams who aren’t at the top of their game. Loss against Canterbury, Auckland, Taranaki and Bay of Plenty, will be temper by wins over Harbour, Tasman, Hawkes Bay and Northland, to see them just scrape through on 33 points.
So, top 7: Canterbury, Wellington, Southland, Auckland, Waikato, Taranaki, Counties.
Bottom 7: Bay of Plenty, Northland, Tasman, Hawkes Bay, Otago, North Harbour, Manawatu.

[Crucial]

I like the optimism but in reality CM will be doing well to fight off BOP and HB.


The Comm Games will have an effect on CM and HB as well.

[eddievxx]

I factored in the Counties loss to BoP, and they (BoP) have a very good chance of being the 7th. But Ive written Hawkes Bay off. Time will tell im blinded by optmisim, or just stupidity

[justin77]

Crucial said:

I like the optimism but in reality CM will be doing well to fight off BOP and HB.


The Comm Games will have an effect on CM and HB as well.

When exactly are these Comm games players being taken from the ITM Cup?

[eddievxx]

justin77 said:

When exactly are these Comm games players being taken from the ITM Cup?

1st half of October sometime. Off the top of my head 3rd to 14th of October.

[Baron Silas Greenback]

BOP would be targetting wins against Northland, CM, Manawatu, Otago and Tasman. Anything against Wellington, Canterbury and Southland would be a bonus.

[KiwiPie]

Baron Silas Greenback said:

BOP would be targetting wins against Northland, CM, Manawatu, Otago and Tasman. Anything against Wellington, Canterbury and Southland would be a bonus.

If it happened, we finish on 7 wins which might be enough to make the Top 7 - could come down to bonus points. That's a few too many "must win" games for my liking though. Would be interesting if we head up to Whangarei for the final game with both sides knowing a win would see them into the Top 7 - but it is a Thursday night game so very little chance of away fans making the trip.

[cricketman]

Northland will stop Southlands unbeaten run this wknd.

[taniwharugby]

KiwiPie said:

If it happened, we finish on 7 wins which might be enough to make the Top 7 - could come down to bonus points. That's a few too many "must win" games for my liking though. Would be interesting if we head up to Whangarei for the final game with both sides knowing a win would see them into the Top 7 - but it is a Thursday night game so very little chance of away fans making the trip.

dont worry, I'll be there to cheer us on...already got tickets tucked away

bold statement there cricketman!!

although, if we have learnt anything from the NH and wellington games....

[Baron Silas Greenback]

KiwiPie said:

If it happened, we finish on 7 wins which might be enough to make the Top 7 - could come down to bonus points. That's a few too many "must win" games for my liking though. Would be interesting if we head up to Whangarei for the final game with both sides knowing a win would see them into the Top 7 - but it is a Thursday night game so very little chance of away fans making the trip.

I just said which ones they would be targetting, not tryingto be a Nostradamus.

But last year we finished 7th, and we have beaten 2 teams we lost to last year and lost to one that we beat last year. Although Canterbury might square up that ledger this weekend.

[Chris B.]

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see one of Auckland or Waikato miss out.

It would surprise the absolute hell out of me if Tasman made the top 7, but we have already played all of the current top 4 - plus Hawkes Bay, and we're not in bad shape points-wise. Theoretically, there should be some easier games to come - but, I'll believe that when I see it.

[KiwiPie]

Baron Silas Greenback said:

I just said which ones they would be targetting, not tryingto be a Nostradamus.

But last year we finished 7th, and we have beaten 2 teams we lost to last year and lost to one that we beat last year. Although Canterbury might square up that ledger this weekend.

I wasn't taking it as a prediction - just noting that we have very little wriggle room if we lose to Canterbury and Wellington as expected.

[kingster]

I will bet 100 pakistani rupee that Northland will land a 77th minute drop goal for the win against Southland this weekend...

[Chris B.]

kingster said:

I will bet 100 pakistani rupee that Northland will land a 77th minute drop goal for the win against Southland this weekend...

I will bet 20,000 rupees that 77th minute drop kick will miss.

[kingster]

will it miss to the left or right though

[Chris B.]

Give me a few minutes....

[Chiefy]

If Northland can begin to close out games they will be in the top 7 this year. Those two games (Harbour and Wellington) should have been wins and might still come back to bite them.

[Unco-ordinated]

Chris B. said:

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see one of Auckland or Waikato miss out.

It would surprise the absolute hell out of me if Tasman made the top 7, but we have already played all of the current top 4 - plus Hawkes Bay, and we're not in bad shape points-wise. Theoretically, there should be some easier games to come - but, I'll believe that when I see it.

Waikato have already gotten through the worst part of our draw, so barring a crazy number of injuries or a completely turnaround in form, we should make the top 7 relatively comfortably.

[eddievxx]

In reality there is such a long way to go this season, and different teams fortunes could change dramatically before the finish. You would have to say at this stage, if things go well for them and not so well for the others that all of Bay of Plenty, Northland, Counties, Tasman, Hawkes Bay, and Harbour could have a realistic shot of making it through.

But thats what makes this such a great competition, and some very worthy teams won't make it through. Personally, Im not looking forward to the split comp next year.

In fact, as a Counties fan, in a way I would rather see them in the bottom 7 because they will win more games there! On the flip side there will be less fans, less money etc and players will all try move to the top 7 teams. As much as the NZRU says it will be a worthwhile competion, it is still second rate and you always want to be competing with the best. Get rid of Super rugby I say.

[matata_massive]

eddievxx said:

In reality there is such a long way to go this season, and different teams fortunes could change dramatically before the finish. You would have to say at this stage, if things go well for them and not so well for the others that all of Bay of Plenty, Northland, Counties, Tasman, Hawkes Bay, and Harbour could have a realistic shot of making it through.

But thats what makes this such a great competition, and some very worthy teams won't make it through. Personally, Im not looking forward to the split comp next year.

In fact, as a Counties fan, in a way I would rather see them in the bottom 7 because they will win more games there! On the flip side there will be less fans, less money etc and players will all try move to the top 7 teams. As much as the NZRU says it will be a worthwhile competion, it is still second rate and you always want to be competing with the best. Get rid of Super rugby I say.

yeah man long live the NPC...c'mon the bay!!

[taniwharugby]

Northland will rue the lost chance of points to NH & Wellington...sure we still have a good chance and at times are playing some magical rugby, but if we cant close out games, we will end up about 8th ot 9th I reckon!

[Crucial]

Not convinced that the 'bottom 7' will be second rate. Given the quality of the team we can see are fighting for 7th place this year there will be a hell of a lot of interest in topping the table. As long as people are interested in that then the coverage will still be there for the sponsors, especially if they feel their team in in with a shot for the prom/rel match which will attract a lot of press.

I'm prepared to give it a shot.

[eddievxx]

Crucial said:

Not convinced that the 'bottom 7' will be second rate. Given the quality of the team we can see are fighting for 7th place this year there will be a hell of a lot of interest in topping the table. As long as people are interested in that then the coverage will still be there for the sponsors, especially if they feel their team in in with a shot for the prom/rel match which will attract a lot of press.

I'm prepared to give it a shot.

Yeah, definately interest in who tops the bottom 7 table, but only because because it relates to who the big boys will play the next year.
Im not too sure there will be that much coverage really... The mainstream news fixate mostly on Canterbury, Wellington and Auckland. When was the last time we saw a one news or three news article on a Bay of Plenty, or a Tasman?
Im pretty sure it will give more power to the top teams, the chance to prove yourself with and against the best, and of being the provincials champs will always make the top 7 more attractive.

What the smaller unions need is a fair go, a level playing field. The oppurtunity to develop and hold on to their own players takes time, and they need and want to play against the big boys. The small unions love taking on the big unions, just ask Tasman this year, Hawkes Bay last year, and Counties and Manawatu the year before that.

The 7/7 split will create a skill level gap between the two divisions which will increase with more time apart.

I really hope im wrong. Will the smaller unions really improve by being in a lower grade?

[Baron Silas Greenback]

They will only not play 3 teams. Hardly the end of the world!

[Cyclops]

If they do prom/relegation right then it should ensure that teams cycle through well. Canterbury and Auckland are the only two teams that I reckon have the combination of management and money required to consistently be ahead of relegation. (I'm assuming the bottom 2 will be demoted? If it's one then I'd add Waikato and Wellington to that, although methinks they just have money and pulling-power).

[taniwharugby]

not to mention they stil get to play some top sides anyway, so it is not like they will only play a good side 1 time a year like the Heartland guys.

[KiwiPie]

I'm OK with the 7/7 split - at least it means the teams in the lower division

- are guaranteed automatic promotion.
- play reasonable teams in the lower tier plus 4 teams from the top tier.
- can all hope to compete for promotion each season.

Similarly the bigger unions cannot have a slack season as Auckland & Waikato have done in recent seasons without being punished by relegation and the relegation dogfight will keep interest for the teams who aren't pushing for the top spots.

I won't see it as a disaster if the Bay miss out on the top division - unless of course all their good players leave.

[eddievxx]

Baron Silas Greenback said:

They will only not play 3 teams. Hardly the end of the world!

How does the draw work?

Maybe im just naive in this professional era, but i would like to see each year as many teams as possible trying to be the best provincial team in NZ. With a decent salary cap (like we have now) embedded over a few years will see the comp much more even. I would like to see history repeat, and have the likes of Counties, BoP Manawatu on top of the comp. Not all the time obviously, but be in with a chance each year.
The 7/7 split will limit the number of teams who can win, and I think will create a skill difference so a team who earns promotion will battle to win anything the next year.

Am I being overly pesimistic about this?

[eddievxx]

KiwiPie said:

I won't see it as a disaster if the Bay miss out on the top division - unless of course all their good players leave.

thats what I think will happen, and ruin the second tier.

[Baron Silas Greenback]

I dont see that really happening much. It is not comparable to the old 2nd division.